Today marks the third day in the annual AFITB blogathon leading up to the playoffs. Paul wrote about Jose Fernandez on Monday and I broke down the Cubs playoff roster yesterday.
Leading up to the 2015 playoffs, I looked at the “top four” pitchers for each contender. Essentially, I was trying to rank each team's playoff rotation. The last team to reach the World Series using a three-man rotation was the 2009 Yankees (Sabathia, Burnett, and Pettitte), so that's why I chose four. That post was mildly popular, so I’m doing it again this year. WAR numbers come from Baseball-Reference; I know it's not a perfect way to measure success but I'm using it because my writing time is limited. Comparing the 2015 rankings with actual playoff results is interesting. The Cubs (2nd of 10) , Mets (4th), Blue Jays (7th), and Royals (10th) all made the Championship Series. The Royals came in dead last and won the World Series, confirming that October really is a crapshoot.
| Team | Starter 1 | Starter 2 | Starter 3 | Starter 4 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cubs | Lester (5.6) | Hendricks (5.1) | Arrieta (3.9) | Lackey (2.5) | 17.1 |
| Nationals | Scherzer (6.6) | Roark (5.3) | Gonzalez (0.9) | Ross (2.0) | 14.8 |
| Giants | Bumgarner (5.0) | Cueto (5.5) | Samardzija (2.7) | Moore (1.6) | 14.8 |
| Blue Jays | Sanchez (4.5) | Happ (4.3) | Estrada (3.3) | Stroman (1.6) | 13.7 |
| Dodgers | Kershaw (5.5) | Rich Hill (4.0) | Maeda (2.8) | Urias (0.8) | 13.1 |
| Tigers | Verlander (6.2) | Fulmer (5.0) | Zimmerman (0.2) | Norris (1.1) | 12.5 |
| Mets | Syndergaard (5.3) | Colon (3.3) | Lugo (1.7) | Gsellman (1.2) | 11.5 |
| Indians | Kluber (6.6) | Bauer (3.1) | Tomlin (1.4) | Clevinger (0.3) | 11.4 |
| Rangers | Hamels (5.1) | Darvish (2.2) | Griffin (0.9) | Perez (2.0) | 10.2 |
| Orioles | Tillman (4.0) | Gausman (4.0) | Bundy (1.7) | Jimenez (-0.3) | 9.4 |
| Cardinals | Martinez (5.0) | Wainwright (1.0) | Reyes (2.0) | Leake (0.5) | 8.5 |
| Red Sox | Porcello (5.0) | Price (2.9) | Rodriguez (0.5) | Buchholz (0) | 8.4 |
| Mariners | Hernandez (1.8) | Iwakuma (3.0) | Paxton (1.0) | Walker (0.2) | 6.0 |